Goal: identify a cautious local pattern from three comparable actual records, or explain why available records are insufficient. Proposed codes: AC9SFI03, AC9SFI04. Prepare: actual Day 37 log if available, invented Model V for paper fallback, Card 38.
- Source check · 3 min. Count only comparable real dated Trial 1/2/3 records for actual pattern; missing or changed-condition rows are flagged, not repaired by fiction.
- Compare · 4 min. Read each actual before/action/after or V's fictional drawing records with explicit MODEL label.
- Model · 5 min. Teacher says “In these three actual tries, [teacher fills from log]” only if data exist; otherwise demonstrates “the invented drawings have two thin after-lines and one blank”.
- Child try · 7 min. Card 38 asks child to group same/different actual results with guidance, compare prediction if available, and name one changed condition. Paper route groups V marks only.
- Check · 4 min. Offer “three similar marks prove every surface cleans this way.” Child repairs to exact source/ink/action and the small sample, or says insufficient evidence.
- Exit · 2 min. Ask which one new safe observation could challenge or support the local pattern.