Target: compare two fictional options by effectiveness and a narrow resource-use ratio, while withholding broader efficiency, competitiveness and satisfaction claims. Prepare: Card F and functions/criteria board.
- Launch · 2 min. Read F's baseline 12 positive/20 and objective 18/20. Ask whether either forecast actually meets 18.
- Model · 4 min. A forecasts 16/20, B 15/20; neither meets the objective. A has the larger projected improvement (four vs three). Fictional cost per additional projected positive slip: A $80÷4=$20, B $30÷3=$10. This narrow ratio is not total business efficiency.
- Guided reading · 5 min. Compare the tradeoff: A more effective against this target; B cheaper per projected additional positive slip. No causes, revenue, competitor or population satisfaction data is given.
- Practice route · 7 min. Choose Day 9 route; recommend a bounded next step for F with one criterion, both calculations and one explicit uncertainty.
- Audit · 4 min. Partner turns forecast into actual success or 20 slips into “all visitors”; learner repairs both claims.
- Exit · 3 min. “Which option meets 18/20 in its forecast?” Key: neither, so a prudent recommendation should include a test or better evidence.